Construction Job Listings: A Leading Indicator of Urban Growth?

The Epum team explores the potential for tracking construction job listings as a leading indicator for urban growth. We normalized relative labor demand across markets and pair it with spatial development data from satellite imagery to better understand current and emerging growth urban patterns. This analysis focuses on metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in the southeastern United States.

AuthorAuthorAuthorAuthor

Rath Sanguanthai, Leonardo Costa, Royden Cooper & Arjun Maitra
August 14, 2025

Key Context

  • Construction job listings serve as a leading indicator of urban growth. Job postings typically appear weeks or months before on-site work begins, offering early signals of development activity.

  • Epum normalized job counts by population to allow for comparison between small and large metropolitan areas, even within the same region.

Methodology

  • Geographic scope: Southeast U.S. MSAs.

  • Data sources: Online job postings for construction-related roles.

  • Timeframe: Most recent 12-month period.

  • Normalization: Jobs per 10,000 residents for each MSA.

Findings

Construction job openings per 10,000 residents by MSA (for select MSAs in the Southeast)

Per-Capita Hiring Rankings

The chart above ranks Southeast MSAs by construction job openings per 10,000 residents.

  • Savannah, GA leads with 1.32 job openings per 10K, the highest among all MSAs in the analysis despite being one of the smallest by population.

  • Chattanooga, TN-GA ranks second at 1.14 job openings per 10K.

  • Wilmington, NC follows with 0.96 job openings per 10K.

  • Miami–Fort Lauderdale–West Palm Beach, FL ranks lowest at 0.05 job openings per 10K.

    Development activity density, past 12 months.

Geographic Distribution of Development

The heat map above shows geospatial patterns of development over the past 12 months in the Southeast U.S.

  • Smaller MSAs such as Savannah show a concentrated central cluster of activity.

  • Larger metros, including Atlanta and Miami, display more distributed growth along suburban and exurban peripheries.

  • Chattanooga shows relatively moderate concentrations of visible development despite its high per-capita hiring, indicating a potential incongruency between local labor demand and the start of new construction projects.

Final Observation

  • Smaller MSAs in the Southeast can lead in per-capita construction hiring, even compared to larger, faster-growing markets.

  • In large MSAs, development activity tends to radiate outward, producing lower central density and higher peripheral growth.

  • Variations between hiring intensity and observed development density may reflect timing gaps between recruitment and active construction as well as potential labor migration patterns.

Other Relevant Sources

Nationwide, construction job growth is slowing. AGC reports that from April 2024 to April 2025, only 184 of 360 U.S. metros added construction jobs, and monthly gains fell from 16,000 to about 2,000 by July 2025.

In growth pockets, wages are climbing. RedHammer data shows field professionals now earn $36.54/hour, 18% above the private-sector average, up ~4% YoY, reflecting tight labor markets in certain MSAs.

According to the latest July 2025 LinkedIn report: while construction job hiring has slowed in recent months (down 7% MoM and 8.7% YoY), it remains one of the highest-volume industries for new hires.